Data Predicts New Coronavirus Cases Will Cease by this Date

By Barnaby Lofton, February 11, 2020

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Scientists at the Department of Health and Environmental Sciences at Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University and Southern University of Science and Technology have created a data model that predicts there will be “virtually no new confirmed [novel coronavirus] cases by February 23.” Dr. Yi Zou and an ad hoc team have used publicly available data and data models to come to this hypothesis.

While this estimate may seem overly optimistic, with February 23 only two weeks away, Dr. Yi Zou has also warned that “we must keep in mind that factors could change the trend or that the data on current cases could be underreported, which would change the prediction, however, the current model as of February 10 shows hope for the near future.” 

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Image via nCoV2020

The model used is a logistic equation based on standard mathematics, and according to the data collected by researchers, “the virus disease pattern shows a classic sigmoid function curve” and “we appear to be at the top curve of the ‘S,’ where the top curve indicates the maximum number of cases,” said Dr. Yi Zou.

Three researchers from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University and one from Southern University of Science and Technology set up ncov2020.org to provide scientists, journalists and other researchers open access to data from across China on the novel coronavirus outbreak. The website is also available in English, and provides up-to-date information captured every 30 minutes.

For regular updates on the novel coronavirus outbreak in China, click here.

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[Cover image via Unsplash]

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