The statistic is well known – only 2.5 percent of the Earth’s water is freshwater – but how will that seemingly trivial fact thrust our world into war? Experts suggest a geographical mismatch in natural resources and demand will fuel desperate conflict in the future. China – which houses 20 percent of the world’s population but only 7 percent of its fresh water – is a prime example. Between 2010 and 2030, China plans to add 1.2 terawatts of water-reliant power – equivalent to adding the combined total installed capacity of the US, the UK and Australia. Yet with seven provinces suffering water deficits and dozens of cities approaching the World Bank’s water poverty mark, China will soon be forced to find additional rivers to source its mandate.
READ MORE: Dark Waters: What's in the Water?
Natural rivers, however, do not yield to the artificial boundaries of nation states. Eight countries see their prized waterways pass through the mainland, creating fear and controversy over China’s choice of sites for future diversion projects. In April 2015, the Diplomat published an article describing how China’s alleged plans to harness the waters of the Brahmaputra River could wreak havoc in India and Bangladesh, two riparian states located downstream. Two months later, the media outlet retracted its statement, clarifying, “Chinese policymakers eventually decided to halt further discussion about the Grand Western Water Diversion Plan (which mentions diverting water from the Brahmaputra River) and approved a less radical proposal that would link the upstream Yangtze and Yellow rivers.” Experts at China Water Risk agree, noting that the only official government proposal includes harnessing water from the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Still, the non-profit organization maintains that China “may have no choice but to dam the tributaries of transboundary rivers for hydropower in the drive for energy security.” India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam are among the nations with rivers that start in China.
Around the world, dozens of countries are undergoing water crises imparted by rapid climate change, population growth and a rising demand for meat – which requires a significant amount of water for production. Karachi, Pakistan, saw protests over water shortages earlier this year, while 20 million residents in Sao Paulo, Brazil, have been forced to go without running water for days at a time. California is entering its fourth year of severe drought and worst dry spell in twelve hundred years, compelling citizens to swap their gardens for artificial turf and farmers to abandon their crops.
READ MORE: Dark Waters: Guangdong's Mounting Water Crisis
There is no question that water shortages plague a majority of global powers, but will that be enough to incite brutal warfare? In the past, cooperation over transboundary water resources has proved more common than military action. Israel and Jordan, for example, share access to the Jordan River, which begins in Syria and forms a natural border between the two nations. Over the last 50 years, the river’s annual flow has dipped from 1.3 billion cubic meters to less than 30 million cubic meters. In 2013, after years of cross-national negotiations, the Israeli Water Authority agreed to pump water regularly from Lake Kinneret into the lower Jordan River – a decision that will benefit both nations.
Diplomacy has worked in the past, but a global water supply crisis would bring desperate levels of resource disparity. In a thirsty world, impetus for war may not rest in reason, but in the will to survive.
READ MORE: Dark Waters: A Thirsty Shenzhen
0 User Comments