A war between China and Japan over territorial disputes is becoming increasingly likely according to a retired People's Liberation Army senior officer.
Former major general Luo Yuan told the SCMP that the modernization and strengthening of China’s military means that the country is far more capable of defending itself. Others believe that the PLA’s lack of battle experience and technological inferiority work against them, despite its vast personnel figures.
The possibility of armed conflict between China and Japan increased in November 2013 after Beijing established its first air defence identification zone in the East China Sea to include the disputed Diaoyu islands, known as the Senkakus in Japan, Luo said.
The islands remain a contentious issue between Japan and the PRC since they were transfered to the former by the United States in 1971. Japan has de facto control over the islands but China has laid claim to them since the 14th century.
"China should remain in a high state of vigilance because Japan has a history of manufacturing small incidents to trigger military conflict," Luo said.
Luo, who is vice-president of a think tank of retired military officers, dismissed claims in some Japanese media that the country had superior air combat powers because of its more experience pilots, calling the suggestions “a deceptive tactic used by Japan to confuse the public.”
The military theorist declined to reveal how many fighter jets the PLA would mobilise in a conflict, only saying that they would have a great advantage in the number and variety of aircraft available.
“The PLA's newest and most advanced planes entered service at the turn of this century,” Luo explained, adding that Japan has only deployed 1980s models to the region.
Despite Luo’s infamous bragging, a defence policy expert at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law is not convinced that the PLC would take the upper hand in any conflict.
Ni Lexiong acknowledged that China’s logistical support near the Diaoyus is better than Japan’s, but only because they have been prepared a war with Taiwan since the 1950s. He went on to say, “we shouldn't ignore the Americans, who would play a decisive role in any armed conflict between China and Japan.”
Macau-based military observer Antony Wong Dong weighed in, saying that in the event of a conflict, all military bases and facilities on land sea would be targets for bombing.
He also addressed the conflicting beliefs over which nation has the most advanced air force. "China has more fighter jets than Japan, but one Japanese pilot is probably equivalent to at least three PLA pilots due to their intensive training and joint drills with the US air force," Dong said.
[Image via SCMP]
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